Will demand for warehouse space fall in H2 2012?

2012-02-13



The Polish warehouse space market is seeing significant demand, but tenants are likely to lose some of their enthusiasm in H2 2012, according to data compiled by Colliers International (CI).
CI analysts have stated that approx. 380,000 m² of warehouse space was delivered in Poland last year, up 40% year on year. Poland has a stock of around 6.8 million m² of warehouse space; last year’s warehouse take up totalled nearly 1.8 million m², up some 20% year on year. In 2011, the vacancy rate declined from 13.8% to 11.4%, while rental rates were generally flat, though some increases were reported in regions where the supply of vacant warehouse space is limited.
Data compiled by CI shows that the leading areas in terms of the number of transactions were Warsaw’s zone 2 (15-30 km from the city centre) and Upper Silesia. New leases accounted for 60% of the total transaction volume in the period under review, though it should be noted that pre-lets made a substantial contribution, too. More than 735,000 m² of warehouse space was leased in the Warsaw agglomeration; in Wroclaw – tenants occupied more than 226,000 m² of new warehouse space, in Central Poland – more than 200,000 m², in Poznan – 168,500 m². Warehouses totalling in excess of 54,000 m² were leased in Krakow; 55,500 m² of warehouse space was let in Gdansk; 13,500 m² in Szczecin.
CI expects that the volume of warehouse space to be completed in 2012 will roughly match last year’s figure; in addition, approx. 72% of the space due for completion in 2012 has been already leased to tenants. Therefore, the coming quarter can see a further decline in the vacancy rate and sites where the rate is kept low will be the focus of developers’ attention. The warehouse space market has also seen more speculative projects, but only the strongest market players with sufficient cash in hand or access to external funding can afford to engage in such schemes.

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